Understanding Hurricane Forecasting
So far, we've experienced quite the hurricane season, and it's not over yet! As the recovery process from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma continue, Big Bags USA® is doing everything it can to help. From collecting donations to send to those affected by the hurricanes to educating the public on hurricane preparedness, our flood barrier company strives to help those in need. In today's blog, we'll continue with another hurricane topic, and focus on understanding how hurricane forecasts work. Keep reading to learn about the models and graphics used and how to understand what they're telling us.
NOAA's investment in ocean and atmospheric research, coupled with technological advancements, has lead to remarkable transformation in hurricane forecasting. In order to forecast a hurricane, specialists at the NOAA study satellite imagery and computer models. Key data used in the forecasts comes from satellites that orbit the earth, continuously observing tropical activity from start to finish. Polar orbiting satellites fly over the storm about twice per day carrying instruments that reveal the storm's structure. If there's a chance the storm will threaten land, the NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) sends an aircraft to fly through the storm and take more detailed observations. Due to the fact that no storm is the same and no one computer model is right every time, the specialists' experience is crucial to making the best forecast possible. When a storm threatens the U.S. coast, the NHC and NOAA's National Weather Service coordinate any necessary watches and warnings. When that happens, the NHC will issue updated text and graphics on the storm every six hours.
The National Hurricane Center creates a graphic depicting where they think the center of the storm could reasonably go. This graphic is known as the "cone of uncertainty." While the cone shows the probable path of the storm, it fails to show the size of the storm and what hazardous conditions could be experienced outside of the cone. The cone also only takes into consideration one forecast, that of the official Hurricane Center. One misconception many people have is that the width of the cone of error is specific to the storm. The truth is that the width of the cone corresponds to the Hurricane Center's average track error that far in advance. Therefore, the width of the cone is actually the same for every storm and every forecast all year long. Due to the uncertainty of this cone, residents along the coast should avoid panicking or relaxing prematurely just because they may or may not be in the cone. Keep in mind also that the cone does not encompass the entire area that may be affected by the storm; it only suggests where the center of the storm could go. Dangerous winds, heavy rains and storm surge could all be experienced outside of that cone depending on the severity of the storm when it makes landfall.
The Spaghetti Models
Another graphic that we've seen way to many of this season are the spaghetti models. While these models are extremely useful to meteorologists, than can be a little confusing for the general public. Each "noodle" does not represent a unique model, but rather shows data churned out by the same weather model. The two most common weather models used are the American model (GFS or Global Forecast System) and the European model (the Euro or ECMWF). Each strand gives us an idea of what the storm could do under slightly different atmospheric conditions. Over time, errors become magnified, and therefore the "noodles" spread out as the forecast progresses.
While these models are great for predicting what a hurricane might do, we still need to be prepared for the unexpected. NOW is the time to create your hurricane preparedness plans, which should include flood mitigation plans. Talk to your local officials and emergency personnel to understand what plans they have in place. Do those plans include resources for flood mitigation? Ask for Big Bags USA® by name! Our flood barriers are 200 times faster to deploy than traditional sandbags, and they use just half the amount of sand. There's no better rapid deployed barrier system on the market than Big Bags USA®. For more information, visit our website or give us a call at 1-800-337-0537.
Hurricane Forecasting
NOAA's investment in ocean and atmospheric research, coupled with technological advancements, has lead to remarkable transformation in hurricane forecasting. In order to forecast a hurricane, specialists at the NOAA study satellite imagery and computer models. Key data used in the forecasts comes from satellites that orbit the earth, continuously observing tropical activity from start to finish. Polar orbiting satellites fly over the storm about twice per day carrying instruments that reveal the storm's structure. If there's a chance the storm will threaten land, the NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) sends an aircraft to fly through the storm and take more detailed observations. Due to the fact that no storm is the same and no one computer model is right every time, the specialists' experience is crucial to making the best forecast possible. When a storm threatens the U.S. coast, the NHC and NOAA's National Weather Service coordinate any necessary watches and warnings. When that happens, the NHC will issue updated text and graphics on the storm every six hours.
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| Photo From NHC - Cone of Uncertainty for Hurricane Maria |
The Cone of Uncertainty
The National Hurricane Center creates a graphic depicting where they think the center of the storm could reasonably go. This graphic is known as the "cone of uncertainty." While the cone shows the probable path of the storm, it fails to show the size of the storm and what hazardous conditions could be experienced outside of the cone. The cone also only takes into consideration one forecast, that of the official Hurricane Center. One misconception many people have is that the width of the cone of error is specific to the storm. The truth is that the width of the cone corresponds to the Hurricane Center's average track error that far in advance. Therefore, the width of the cone is actually the same for every storm and every forecast all year long. Due to the uncertainty of this cone, residents along the coast should avoid panicking or relaxing prematurely just because they may or may not be in the cone. Keep in mind also that the cone does not encompass the entire area that may be affected by the storm; it only suggests where the center of the storm could go. Dangerous winds, heavy rains and storm surge could all be experienced outside of that cone depending on the severity of the storm when it makes landfall.
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| Photo From Heavy.com - Hurricane Maria Spaghetti Model |
Another graphic that we've seen way to many of this season are the spaghetti models. While these models are extremely useful to meteorologists, than can be a little confusing for the general public. Each "noodle" does not represent a unique model, but rather shows data churned out by the same weather model. The two most common weather models used are the American model (GFS or Global Forecast System) and the European model (the Euro or ECMWF). Each strand gives us an idea of what the storm could do under slightly different atmospheric conditions. Over time, errors become magnified, and therefore the "noodles" spread out as the forecast progresses.
Hurricane Preparedness
While these models are great for predicting what a hurricane might do, we still need to be prepared for the unexpected. NOW is the time to create your hurricane preparedness plans, which should include flood mitigation plans. Talk to your local officials and emergency personnel to understand what plans they have in place. Do those plans include resources for flood mitigation? Ask for Big Bags USA® by name! Our flood barriers are 200 times faster to deploy than traditional sandbags, and they use just half the amount of sand. There's no better rapid deployed barrier system on the market than Big Bags USA®. For more information, visit our website or give us a call at 1-800-337-0537.
MADE IN THE USA ~ 100% Manufactured in Missouri ~ BUY AMERICAN
MADE IN THE USA ~ 100% Manufactured in Missouri ~ BUY AMERICAN
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