2018 Winter River Flood Outlook for Mid-Atlantic Region
On January 4, 2018, the first winter flood outlook was released by the National Weather Service. This outlook estimates the potential for river flooding to develop during the coming weeks across the mid-Atlantic region. (The mid-Atlantic region includes Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Virgina, as well as parts of New Jersey, New York and North Carolina.) Factors affecting this estimate include future weather conditions, recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water equivalent, river ice, streamflow, etc. Heavy rainfall is the primary factor that leads to river flooding. It's important to note that this outlook does not address the severity/extent of any future river flooding, nor does it address any flash flooding possibilities.River Flooding Potential
Over the next two weeks, the river flood potential for the mid-Atlantic region is below average. As of January 4th, the area was currently not experiencing flooding at all. During the month prior to January 4, precipitation was below normal to much-below normal across the entire region.
Snow Conditions
Snow conditions as of January 4 were below average to average. Across most of the area, snow depths were less than 6 inches and snow water equivalents are less than half an inch. However, the recent snow storm did create above-average snow conditions for extreme eastern portions of the area. The significant snow fell East of most of the regions river basins though.
The harsh temperatures across the mid-Atlantic region has allowed river ice to begin forming. As of January 4, the river ice was considered somewhat above average. However, as the temperatures begin to rise, river ice across the southern and eastern portions of the region will erode some. Many stream gages were affected by ice when the outlook was conducted. However, the latest data from the U.S. Geological Survey indicated below-average or much below-average stream flows across the region.
Soil Moisture, Groundwater & Reservoir Conditions
According to the long-term Palmer Drought Severity Index, as of December 30,2017, the mid-Atlantic region's deep soils contained moisture that was fairly close to normal for this time of year. However, other detailed soil moisture information indicates considerable moisture deficits across large portions of the region, especially the eastern and southern regions. In addition, most of the USGS groundwater monitoring wells within the region are indicating groundwater levels that are below or much-below their long-term normals for this time of year. Most major reservoirs in the region are holding storages that are below-average to average for this time of year.
Future Weather Conditions
The coastal snowstorm activity has subsided and milder weather is expected throughout this week. Small storm systems are expected to produce light-to-moderate precipitation. However, there are no indications of any widespread heavy rain events this week. Longer-range weather outlooks suggest temperatures will stay pretty close to normal for January with normal or above normal precipitation. No threat of river flooding has developed yet. Low stream flows, dry soils and limited snow conditions help create this below average river flood threat. To stay up-to-date on future outlooks from the National Weather Center, visit: https://www.weather.gov/marfc/WinterSpring_Flood_Outlook.
While the threat of winter river flooding is not imminent at this time, flooding is possible any time of year in any area. Make sure your community is prepared by having a community flood plan in place. Each flood mitigation plan should include an easily-stored and easily-deployed flood protection product such as Big Bags USA®. For more information on how Big Bags USA® is here to help your community be prepared, visit our website or give us a call at 1-800-337-0537.
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