Predicting Hurricanes with Climate Models
For decades, we have been analyzing the weather and trying to predict what will happen next. Technology has grown and changed in such a way that predictions are getting more and more accurate each year. While we've realized a link between climate change and hurricane activity, accurately predicting what may happen on a warming planet is not that easy.
Climate Models
Climate models are based on well-documented physical processes to simulate the transfer of energy and materials through the climate system. These models use mathematical equations to characterize how energy and matter interact in different parts of the ocean, atmosphere and land. This is a complex process of identifying and quantifying Earth system processes, representing them with mathematical equations, setting variables to a set of initial conditions and repeatedly solving them using powerful computers. Once a climate model is set up, it can be tested with a process called "hind-casting." This process runs the model from the present time backwards. The results are then compared with observed climate and weather conditions to check for accuracy. Once a climate model can perform well in hind-casting tests, its results for simulating future climate are also assumed to be valid.
Future Predictions
To project climate into the future, the initial conditions are set to reflect a finite set of possible future conditions known as scenarios. Scenarios are possible stories about how quickly human population will grow, how land will be used, how economies will evolve and the atmospheric conditions that would result for each storyline. While model results project that the global temperature will continue to rise, human decisions and behavior will likely have an impact on how dramatically the climate will change in the future. Unlike weather forecasts, which describe a detailed picture of the expected daily sequence of conditions starting from the present, climate models are probablistic, indicating areas with higher chances to be warmer or cooler and wetter or dryer than usual. Climate models are based on global patterns in the ocean and atmosphere, and records of the types of weather that occurred under similar patterns in the past.
Hurricane Predictions
We know what climate conditions were present for past major hurricanes, and we can use that information combined with current climate models to predict future storms. Some current climate models often reveal a future where there may be fewer hurricanes, but more powerful ones. However, other research suggests that the frequency will not change, but that they will become more intense. The uncertainty of future storms makes it difficult to prepare for the future.
While we may not know the exact frequency or severity of future storms, we do know that more major hurricanes will affect our country. Now is the time to start preparing for those future storms. Big Bags USA® is here to help with your flood mitigation plans! Our innovative flood barrier systems are the perfect replacement for traditional sandbags. Our flood control systems are 200 times faster to deploy than traditional sandbags, and they use just 1/2 the amount of sand. One of our systems can be placed and filled by just two men in under 10 minutes. There's no other sandbag deployment that equals the speed of Big Bags USA®. For more information, visit our website at www.BigBagsUSA.com. For immediate delivery of the Big Bags USA® flood barrier systems, give us a call at 1-800-337-0537.
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MADE IN THE USA ~ 100% Manufactured in Missouri ~ BUY AMERICAN
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